Investigating the Temporary and Permanent Influential Variables on Iran Inflation Using TVP-DMA Models

نویسندگان

  • Mohammad Kazem Naziri Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Science, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran
  • Mohsen Khezri Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Science, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran
چکیده مقاله:

I nflation forecast is one of the tools in targeting inflation by the central bank. The most important problem of previous models to forecast the inflation is that they could not provide a correct prediction over time. However, the central bank policymakers shall seek to create economic stability by ignoring the short-term and temporary changes in price and regarding steady inflation. On this basis, in the present paper, it has been aimed to provide nonlinear dynamic models to simulate the inflation in the economy of Iran using quarterly data referring to 1988- 2012 as well as TVP-DMA and TVP-DMS models. These models can provide changes in input variables as well as changes in the coefficients of the model over time. Based on the results, the possibility of growth of currency in circulation, economic growth, also the growth of deposits either visual or non-visual variables, is more remarkable in modeling of inflation in economy of Iran. In addition, the predictive power of dynamic models presented in this study is more than other models.  

برای دانلود باید عضویت طلایی داشته باشید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Evaluation of the Most Important Factors Affecting the Income of Taxes in the Economy of Iran with the Approach of TVP DMA Models

Due to the government’s roles and responsibilities in economy for financing public services through taxes as sustainable revenue, this study investigates not only the effective factors on tax revenues and its theoretical bases but also selects the related important effective variables in Iran’s economy during the period (1971-2017) by using dynamic models TVP - DMA. The classic models focus on ...

متن کامل

Using VARs and TVP-VARs with Many Macroeconomic Variables

This paper discusses the challenges faced by the empirical macroeconomist and methods for surmounting them. These challenges arise due to the fact that macroeconometric models potentially include a large number of variables and allow for time variation in parameters. These considerations lead to models which have a large number of parameters to estimate relative to the number of observations. A...

متن کامل

on the relationship between using discourse markers and the quality of expository and argumentative academic writing of iranian english majors

the aim of the present study was to investigate the frequency and the type of discourse markers used in the argumentative and expository writings of iranian efl learners and the differences between these text features in the two essay genres. the study also aimed at examining the influence of the use of discourse markers on the participants’ writing quality. to this end the discourse markers us...

15 صفحه اول

iranian english learners’ perception and personality: a dual approach to investigating influential factors on willingness to communicate

abstract previous studies on willingness to communicate (wtc) have shown the influence of many individual or situational factors on students’ tendency to engage in classroom communication, in which wtc has been viewed either at the trait-level or situational level. however, due to the complexity of the notion of willingness to communicate, the present study suggests that these two strands are ...

Effect of Temporary and Permanent Shocks of Total Factor Productivity on the Demand for Agricultural Imports in Iran

Economic theories show that the direction and magnitude of the fluctuations of economic variables depend on the type and magnitude of the shocks they are faced with. Various reasons are noted for fluctuations in demands for imports, including productivity shocks. Accordingly, this research was aimed at identifying the effects of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) shocks of the agricultural sector ...

متن کامل

Investigating the Effects of Monetary and Financial Shocks on the Key Macroeconomic Variables, Focusing on the Intermediary Role of Banks Using DSGE Models

This study investigates monetary and financial shocks on macroeconomic variables, focusing on the role of banking intervention. For this purpose, a Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model is designed for Iran’s economy that involves financial and banking sectors. The results of the model simulation show that the financial accelerator theory works in the Iranian economy. Al...

متن کامل

منابع من

با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

ذخیره در منابع من قبلا به منابع من ذحیره شده

{@ msg_add @}


عنوان ژورنال

دوره 23  شماره 1

صفحات  209- 234

تاریخ انتشار 2019-01-01

با دنبال کردن یک ژورنال هنگامی که شماره جدید این ژورنال منتشر می شود به شما از طریق ایمیل اطلاع داده می شود.

میزبانی شده توسط پلتفرم ابری doprax.com

copyright © 2015-2023